Across all 206 homes, revenue is sitting on the calendar in four places: empty nights between bookings and owner stays, May and September nights lost to rates that were too high, newer homes earning less per night than established ones, and holiday weeks that are still open. We estimate Pacer can capture $420K to $630K a year in gross rent from these, about $2,000 to $3,000 per home. That counts only the share of nights we expect to sell. It includes nothing for homes you have not yet signed or for market growth, which would add to it.
This is the ceiling, not our estimate. The $270K in the October snapshot covered 95 homes and one season, and it is the first line below. Each line adds to the one before it, up to $2.07M across all 206 homes. Not every night will sell, so Part B shows what we realistically expect: a Low, Mid or High estimate. A gap night is an empty night, or two or three in a row, stuck between two bookings or owner stays.
| Line | What it covers | Homes | Adds | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October snapshot | Empty nights between two guest stays in peak season, June 1 to September 7 ($180K), plus May and September nights lost to higher rates ($92K). | 95 | $270K | $270K |
| Other homes, same season | The same two measures on the other 111 homes. Small, because most are newer and have fewer bookings, so fewer empty nights between two stays. | 111 | +$100K | $370K |
| All other empty nights | One to three empty nights in a row between two bookings or owner stays, on all 206 homes, that the lines above did not count: gaps between guests outside peak season, plus gaps next to owner stays all year. | 206 | +$960K | $1.33M |
| Newer homes earn less | The 108 homes that started in 2025 and 2026 earn $164 in rent per available night. Homes in service before 2025 earn $197. Newer homes are also a bit smaller (about 3.5 bedrooms against 3.9), so we compare per bedroom: $48 against $54. | 108 | +$655K | $1.99M |
| Holidays | Thanksgiving, Christmas week and New Year's are 37%, 28% and 30% booked as of October 23. Last year they finished 70%, 73% and 91%. This line sells the open nights up to last year's finish, at rates that stay $100 above last year's. | 206 | +$89K | $2.07M |
| Total potential | Everything we found, if every night sold at full rate. Not our estimate. | 206 | $2.07M |
May and September are counted net across the 108 homes with two years of history, Labor Day weekend removed, so the $73K for those homes is lower than the $92K on the 95 same-store homes alone: some homes sold more nights. Maintenance blocks are not counted as empty nights. The snapshot's 289 peak gap nights reproduce exactly under this method. The newer-homes line compares two groups of homes instead of counting nights, and we adjust it for size. Newer homes have slightly fewer empty nights between bookings than established homes (about 46 per 1,000 available nights against 53), so this gap does not come from the nights counted above. Measured on all other nights it is larger, $694K, so we use the more cautious $655K and count only a fraction of it below.
We account for two opportunities:
The three scenarios below also vary how much revenue we expect to capture from the other opportunities. Together, these assumptions produce an estimated annual lift of $420K to $630K, with a middle estimate of $560K.
| Source | Total potential (Part A) | Low estimate | Mid estimate | High estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empty nights between bookings and owner stays, full year | $1.26M | $236K | $236K | $236K |
| May and September pricing | $73K | $44K | $73K | $73K |
| Newer homes catching up to established homes, adjusted for size | $655K | $98K | $164K | $229K |
| Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's at higher rates | $89K | $44K | $89K | $89K |
| Our estimated lift per year, gross | $2.07M | $422K | $562K | $627K |
| Per home per year | $2,000 | $2,700 | $3,000 |
What we count in each case. Every case: 25% of empty nights, at 75% of the month's rate. Low: 15% of the newer-homes difference, 60% of May and September, 50% of holidays. Mid: 25% of the newer-homes difference, all of May, September and holidays. High: 35% of the newer-homes difference, all of May, September and holidays. We never count more than the total potential in Part A.
The $420K to $630K in added annual gross rent comes from three places: filling short gaps between bookings (the largest part), rates and bookings in May, September and holiday weeks, and newer homes moving partway toward established homes' performance after adjusting for size. It is measured on your last 12 months, which already include the 11.8% growth your same-store homes achieved, so it is additional to that. It excludes new homes and any further market growth. Use it as a planning range, not a guaranteed result.
The 206 homes with at least one guest night booked on or after September 1, 2026, in Beyond or PriceLabs. Homes with none, such as homes that have not hosted since May, are left out. The date is the night the guest stays, not the day the booking was made. The estimate uses 12 months of rent on those homes, with the 44 homes that started in 2026 counted as if they had a full year. Rent is before OTA commission and excludes cleaning fees and tax.
Homes signed since September with no booking yet, homes in Guesty but not yet in a pricing tool, and the 10 or more contracts a month you are signing now. Each established home adds $2,000 to $3,000 a year to this number as it comes on, so the 2027 book is worth more than the figure above. Owner rights are unchanged in every case; we only price the empty nights around an owner stay, nothing else.