On Tuesday you asked for the lift across total inventory, as a range, year over year. The October snapshot sized two things we could measure cleanly on the 95 homes with two full years of history, in peak season only, at full value. This page runs the same measures on every active home for a full year, adds things that only show across the whole book, and then counts only the share we expect to actually sell. Pacer's estimate throughout. Growth is not in the number.
The $270K in the October snapshot covered 95 homes and one season. It is not a separate number from this one. It is the first line of it. Each line below adds to the one before it, until we reach everything we found across all 206 homes: $2.41M if every night sold at full rate. That will not happen, so Part B shows the share we expect to actually sell. A gap night is an empty night, or two or three in a row, stuck between two bookings or owner stays.
| Line | What it covers | Homes | Adds | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October snapshot | Empty nights between two guest stays in peak season, June 1 to September 7 ($180K), plus May and September nights lost to higher rates ($92K). | 95 | $270K | $270K |
| Other homes, same season | The same two measures on the other 111 homes. Small, because most are newer and have fewer bookings, so fewer empty nights between two stays. | 111 | +$100K | $370K |
| All other empty nights | One to three empty nights in a row between two bookings or owner stays, on all 206 homes, that the lines above did not count: gaps between guests outside peak season, plus gaps next to owner stays all year. | 206 | +$971K | $1.34M |
| Newer homes earn less | The 108 homes that started in 2025 and 2026 earn $164 in rent per available night. Homes in service before 2025 earn $197. | 108 | +$980K | $2.32M |
| Holidays | Thanksgiving, Christmas week and New Year's are 37%, 28% and 30% booked today. Last year they finished 70%, 73% and 91%. This line sells the open nights up to last year's finish, at rates that stay $100 above last year's. | 206 | +$89K | $2.41M |
| Total | Everything we found, if every night sold at full rate. | 206 | $2.41M |
May and September are counted net across the 108 homes with two years of history, Labor Day weekend removed, so the $73K for those homes is lower than the $92K on the 95 same-store homes alone: some homes sold more nights. Maintenance blocks are not counted as empty nights. The snapshot's 289 peak gap nights reproduce exactly under this method. Part of the newer-homes line is the homes themselves, not the pricing, so we count only a fraction of it below.
We account for two opportunities:
The three scenarios below also vary how much revenue we expect to capture from the other opportunities. Together, these assumptions produce an estimated annual lift of $470K to $800K, with a middle estimate of $645K.
| Source | If every night sold | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empty nights between bookings and owner stays, full year | $1.27M | $238K | $238K | $238K |
| May and September pricing | $73K | $44K | $73K | $95K |
| Newer homes catching up to established homes | $980K | $147K | $245K | $343K |
| Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's at higher rates | $89K | $44K | $89K | $124K |
| Total per year, gross | $2.41M | $473K | $645K | $800K |
| Per home per year | $2,300 | $3,100 | $3,900 |
In every case we count 25% of empty nights, at 75% of the month's rate. Low: we close 15% of the newer-homes difference, with May and September at 60% and holidays at 50%. Mid: 25%, with May, September and holidays in full. High: 35%, with May and September at 130% and holidays at 140%.
Every number here comes from counted nights on your own calendar, not from a growth assumption or a portfolio average. We left out anything we could not measure, including new homes and growth. Your same-store homes already grew 11.8% without us, so this is what is left on the calendar after that. It is an estimate to plan against, not a guarantee.
The 206 homes with at least one guest night booked on or after September 1, 2026, in Beyond or PriceLabs. Homes with none, such as homes that have not hosted since May, are left out. The date is the night the guest stays, not the day the booking was made. The estimate uses 12 months of rent on those homes, with the 44 homes that started in 2026 counted as if they had a full year. Rent is before OTA commission and excludes cleaning fees and tax.
Homes signed since September with no booking yet, homes in Guesty but not yet in a pricing tool, and the 10 or more contracts a month you are signing now. Each established home adds $2,300 to $3,900 a year to this number as it comes on, so the 2027 book is worth more than the figure above. Owner rights are unchanged in every case; we only price the empty nights around an owner stay, nothing else.