On Tuesday you asked for the lift across total inventory, as a range, year over year. The October snapshot sized two things we could measure cleanly on the 95 homes with two full years of history, in peak season only, at full value. This page runs the same measures on every active home for a full year, adds the levers that only show at book scale, and then applies realistic capture rates. Pacer's estimate throughout. Growth is not in the number.
The $270K in the snapshot was 289 peak gap nights at the peak rate ($180K) plus the 152 nights May and September gave back ($92K), on the 95 same-store homes. Every step below uses the same Beyond data and the same definitions. Values are at full value, meaning every night counted sells at the month's average rate, so this table sizes the inventory, not the forecast.
| Step | Homes | Window | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snapshot: peak gap nights plus May and September give-back | 95 | Jun 1 to Sep 7, 2026 | $270K |
| Same gap measure on every active home. 509 nights instead of 289. | 206 | Jun 1 to Sep 7 | $300K in gaps |
| Same gap measure across the whole year. 1,312 one to three night gaps between two stays, 488 of them in June to August, valued at each month's rate. | 206 | 12 months | $710K in gaps |
| Shoulder give-back on every home with two years of history, not just the 95. May and September, Labor Day weekend removed. | 108 | May, Sep | $73K |
| New: short open runs beside an owner block. 1,052 nights of one to three that touch a block on one side and a stay or block on the other. Separate from the gaps above. | 206 | 12 months | $561K |
| New: newer homes running below established homes. The 108 homes launched in 2025 and 2026 earn $164 of rent per open night against $197 for homes in service before 2025, on 29,700 open nights. | 108 | 12 months | $980K |
| New: holiday fill at a held rate. Thanksgiving, Christmas week and New Year's filled to last year's final occupancy while holding $100 over last year's final rate. | 206 | Nov to Jan | $89K |
| Unsold inventory at full value | 206 | 12 months | $2.41M |
Gap and adjacency nights exclude owner stays and maintenance blocks. The snapshot's 289 peak gap nights reproduce exactly under this method. The newer-home line is the gap to established homes; part of it is the homes themselves rather than pricing, which is why it is heavily discounted below.
A gap night sells at a discount, or not at all. A night beside an owner block is harder than a gap between two guests. A newer home closes only part of its distance to an established one in a year. The three cases below are the same inventory with different assumptions about how much of it we actually convert. The quoted range is $500K to $900K, between the low and high cases, with the midpoint near $700K.
| Lever | Full value | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap nights between stays | $710K | $160K | $256K | $332K |
| Nights beside owner blocks | $561K | $84K | $135K | $191K |
| Shoulder pacing, May and September | $73K | $44K | $73K | $95K |
| Newer-home ramp | $980K | $147K | $245K | $343K |
| Holiday rate hold | $89K | $44K | $89K | $124K |
| Total per year, pre-commission | $2.41M | $480K | $800K | $1.09M |
| Share of $9.9M forward rent | 4.8% | 8.0% | 10.9% | |
| Per home per year | $2,300 | $3,900 | $5,300 |
Low: 30% of gap nights and 20% of block-adjacent nights sell at 75% of the month's rate; 15% of the newer-home gap closes; shoulder and holiday at 60% and 50%. Mid: 45%, 30%, 25%, 100%, 100%, at 80% of rate. High: 55%, 40%, 35%, 130%, 140%, at 85% of rate.
Across Pacer's whole book, same-store rent per open night is up 3.7% year over year for January to September 2026 and 9.5% for the third quarter, with the median portfolio up 5% and the top quarter up 12.8% or more. The Red Cottage range sits inside that, and it is built from counted nights, not from a growth assumption. Your same-store homes already grew 11.8% without us; this is what is left on the calendar after that.
The 206 homes with a guest stay or booking since September 1, 2026 in Beyond or PriceLabs. Trailing 12 months of rent, $8.6M, with the 44 homes launched in 2026 annualized at the 2025 cohort's rent per open night, for a forward base of about $9.9M. Rent is before OTA commission and excludes cleaning fees and tax, so it is the figure your management fee is charged on.
Homes signed since September with no booking yet, homes in Guesty but not yet in a pricing tool, and the 10 or more contracts a month you are signing now. Each established home adds $2,400 to $4,400 a year to this number as it comes on, so the 2027 book is worth more than the figure above. Owner rights are unchanged in every case; the block line prices the nights around a block, nothing else.
The newer-home line is the softest. Some of the gap between a 2025 launch and a pre-2025 home is the house, not the pricing. Joey offered the acquisition historicals for the homes that came over with ported reservations, roughly 40. Two prior years of bookings for those homes would let us separate ramp from mix and tighten the range before a contract.
Jon will come back with a reworked proposal measured against the low case, so the economics hold even if we only capture what the conservative assumptions allow. Reply to the email this came with.